Bitcoin proponent and former chief equity strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Tom Lee, has recently encouraged Bitcoin traders to hold their coins despite its loss of 40% value so far this year.
Lee’s experience as a stock analyst has given him heightened insight into the current market slump Bitcoin is experiencing. In a note written by Lee on 28 April, he describes the current situation as a matter of market timing, which is usually advised against in traditional equity investing.
As Lee alluded to, “If an investor missed out on the 10 best days (for S&P 500) each year, the annualized return drops to 5.4 percent (ex-10 best), from 9.2 percent. In other words, the case for buy and hold in equities is the opportunity cost of missing out on the 10 best days”.
Based on Lee’s statement, this means that if an investor missed the 10 best Bitcoin preforming days every year their annual returns would decrease by 25%. Fundstrat data released by Lee, who heads the research department, shows that on average Bitcoin was in fact down every year if the top 10 day gains are excluded.
Considering the majority of Bitcoin market gains are condensed into a small number of days each year, Lee recommends that holding is the most potentially profitable option.
HODL on
Despite the recent market instability across a number of cryptocurrencies (notably Ethereum), Fundstrat still holds the prediction that the value of Bitcoin will cross USD 25,000 by the end of 2018.
One of the main obstacles Bitcoin faces is uncertain regulatory conditions that disincentivize potential investors. Fundstrat analysts included in the same note as Lee said that they expected Bitcoin challenges to subside by the latter part of 2018, including ”the clarification of regulatory hurdles”.
A number of countries have recently pursued legislating cryptocurrency regulations, including France, Malta, and Australia.
The predictions from Fundstrat may well encourage many to HODL, the now infamous typo of a frantic trader’s appeal to hold on to Bitcoin, that has become the mantra of Bitcoin enthusiasts.
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